Independent equity research
Is Tidewater (TDW) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Tidewater — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (trim into strength)
12-mo fair value
$84.00
To fair value
−3%
By · report dated 2026-08-12 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At $91 TDW already discounts a flat perpetual adj. EBITDA of ~$920m, 70% above the $544m earned in the last twelve months, so unless average fleet day rates rise the full $3,000-4,000/day in both 2027 and 2028 as management guides, the shares are worth about $84
How we value it
We value Tidewater using 10-yr unlevered DCF (adj. EBITDA less cash tax, capex, drydock), WACC 11.7%, g 2.0%; EV/EBITDA cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Tidewater report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.