Independent equity research
Is S&P Global (SPGI) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
S&P Global — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce)
12-mo fair value
$335.00
To fair value
−17%
By · report dated 2026-08-02 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At $412 SPGI's 4.3% free-cash-flow yield already discounts ~9% annual FCF growth for ten straight years — above management's own 6–8% revenue algorithm and struck on peak-cycle Ratings issuance (billed issuance +20% LTM, hyperscaler supply guided up to $250–300bn) — so we value the shares at $335; we are wrong if FY27 organic constant-currency revenue growth holds at 8%+ while Market Intelligence Platforms reaccelerates above 5% organic
How we value it
We value S&P Global using 10-yr FCF/DCF on $5.2bn ex-Mobility owner FCF at 9.5% proprietary WACC (2.5% terminal), rolled 12 months; cross-checked against justified forward P/E (~17.5x FY26E) and a reverse DCF. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full S&P Global report
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