Independent equity research
Is Sacyr, S.A. (SCYR) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Sacyr, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€4.97
To fair value
+23%
By · report dated 2026-09-20 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At €4.12 the market discounts Sacyr's disclosed concession distributions (€3.44bn in 2026-33, €19.9bn over their lives) at about 10.9%; we hold 9.3% right for a Chile-, Italy- and Spain-weighted, investment-grade portfolio, worth €4.97 a share if 2027 distributions reach at least €300m
How we value it
We value Sacyr, S.A. using SOTP: concessions on equity cash flows at country Ke (9.3% avg); E&C at 5.0x EBITDA. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Sacyr, S.A. report
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