Independent equity research
Is Oracle (ORCL) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Oracle — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$75.00
To fair value
−46%
By · report dated 2026-09-14 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At $150 the market pays the top of the Street's own revenue range plus a hyperscaler terminal return. Charging all FY27-28 capex of $92-95bn plus $42bn of new finance leases, the base case values the equity at $46. Falsified if FY28 net cash capex lands under $55bn while cloud revenue still compounds above 45%
How we value it
We value Oracle using Probability-weighted FCFF DCF, WACC 9.83%, g 3.0%, terminal ROIC solved from the forecast; 25% weight on EV/EBITDA.. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Oracle report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.