Independent equity research
Is Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. (NTGY) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€30.09
To fair value
+2%
By · report dated 2026-09-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Naturgy is fairly valued at €29.58: our €30.09 target rests on 2027E EBITDA of €5.40bn and EPS of €2.11, 7% below 2026E as Yamal LNG volumes end; a 2027 guide of €5.6bn+ EBITDA or an EPS-accretive deal clearing our 6.49% WACC would make us buyers, and losing the Rio de Janeiro gas concessions would make us sellers
How we value it
We value Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. using Group FCFF DCF (7-yr + 2H26 stub), WACC 6.49%, g 2.0%, terminal ROIC 8.0%. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. report
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