Independent equity research
Is ArcelorMittal S.A. (MTS) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
ArcelorMittal S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
€36.34
To fair value
−41%
By · report dated 2026-09-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
ArcelorMittal at EUR 63.10 discounts our base cash flows at about 6.4%, below its own ~6.5% cost of debt, and needs a sustained ~13% ROE it earned only in 2021-22; unless 2027 EBITDA tops $10bn with Europe above $120/t, the shares should de-rate toward our EUR 36 fair value as TRQ restocking gains fade
How we value it
We value ArcelorMittal S.A. using 60/40 blend: mid-cycle segment SOTP (JVs at book) and FCFF DCF at 11.42% WACC. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full ArcelorMittal S.A. report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.