Independent equity research
Is Merlin Properties SOCIMI, S.A. (MRL) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Merlin Properties SOCIMI, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€14.60
To fair value
+20%
By · report dated 2026-09-14 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
MERLIN's 20% discount to our EUR 15.36 adjusted NTA prices the 724 MW data-centre programme at roughly sunk cost; we think that misreads a landlord already buying renewable PPAs, and it is falsified if 2026 data-centre leasing stalls below the 200 MW guided or the draft decree strips its grid rights
How we value it
We value Merlin Properties SOCIMI, S.A. using EPRA NTA sum-of-the-parts; data centres at 6.25% stabilised exit cap; cash-rent DCF as cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Merlin Properties SOCIMI, S.A. report
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