Independent equity research
Is MAPFRE, S.A. (MAP) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
MAPFRE, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (trim into strength)
12-mo fair value
€4.32
To fair value
0%
By · report dated 2026-09-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
MAPFRE's ~12.5% reported IFRS ROE is worth about 1.3x book once 0.9pp a year of euro translation drag and a 9.28% EM-blended cost of equity are charged, so 1.35x is fair value; IFRS ROE above 13.5% in 2027 with Safety closed and Solvency II held at 200% or more would prove us wrong
How we value it
We value MAPFRE, S.A. using Excess return on IFRS book, COE 9.28% EM-blended, g 2%, 7-yr ROE fade. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full MAPFRE, S.A. report
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