Independent equity research
Is Grifols, S.A. (GRF) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Grifols, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€12.50
To fair value
+33%
By · report dated 2026-09-14 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Grifols is priced for a terminal ROIC of 3.0%, barely half what it earns today, so a re-rating to 9.1x FY2027E EV/EBITDA (still 11% below the peer median) is worth EUR 12.50, a call that fails if net leverage does not fall below 4.0x by end-2027 or FY2026 free cash flow misses the EUR 500-575m guided range
How we value it
We value Grifols, S.A. using EV/EBITDA on FY2027E (50%), 10-yr FCFF DCF at 7.08% WACC (30%), P/E on FY2027E (20%). The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Grifols, S.A. report
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