Independent equity research
Is Endesa, S.A. (ELE) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Endesa, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (trim into strength)
12-mo fair value
€33.00
To fair value
−22%
By · report dated 2026-09-15 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At EUR 42.22 Endesa discounts a 5.45% WACC or a 5% decade-long EBITDA CAGR against management's own 4% three-year guide; strip the EUR 0.2bn of non-recurring H1 EBITDA and underlying growth was 12%, not 20%. Falsified if the CNMC sets the 2026-31 distribution return above 7.0% and 2028 EBITDA clears EUR 6.5bn
How we value it
We value Endesa, S.A. using Blended DCF 45% / peer multiples 40% / dividend capitalisation 15%; DCF at 7.2% WACC, g 1.75%. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Endesa, S.A. report
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