Independent equity research
Is Credo Technology (CRDO) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Credo Technology — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL
12-mo fair value
$97.00
To fair value
−51%
By · report dated 2026-09-04 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Credo must deliver a second-half FY2027 optical ramp of USD 600m from three product lines that were near-zero a year ago; at 46x our FY2027 GAAP EPS of USD 3.56 the market discounts a business with 61% of revenue in two customers at 9.4%, while CAPM at beta 1.80 demands 12.8%
How we value it
We value Credo Technology using Probability-weighted 10-yr DCF on after-SBC owner FCF; WACC 12.79%, terminal g 3.0%. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Credo Technology report
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