Independent equity research
Is CaixaBank, S.A. (CABK) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
CaixaBank, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€12.59
To fair value
−2%
By · report dated 2026-09-20 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At 2.74x tangible book CaixaBank already prices a perpetual ~19.7% ROTCE; we see ROTCE peaking near 20% in 2027 and settling toward 17% as credit costs normalise and the Spanish bank tax persists, worth €12.59 a share - a HOLD we would abandon if 2028 ROTCE holds above 21% or the tax lapses after 2027
How we value it
We value CaixaBank, S.A. using Residual income on our ROTCE path, COE 8.78%, terminal g 2.5%, 6.5-yr horizon. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full CaixaBank, S.A. report
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