Independent equity research
Is AeroVironment (AVAV) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
AeroVironment — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$94.00
To fair value
−41%
By · report dated 2026-09-14 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
AeroVironment earns about 3% on $4.7bn of invested capital against an 11.7% cost of capital, and even the consensus-high path discounts to $117; the thesis fails if FY2028 adjusted EBITDA margin clears 19% while free cash flow turns positive
How we value it
We value AeroVironment using Ten-year FCFF DCF, WACC 11.67%, terminal g 3.0% on ROIC 12%; 70% probability-weighted, 30% peer-median forward multiple. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full AeroVironment report
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