Independent equity research
Is Aena S.M.E., S.A. (AENA) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Aena S.M.E., S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL
12-mo fair value
€21.00
To fair value
−19%
By · report dated 2026-09-15 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
DORA III, approved 15 Sep 2026, grants Aena +0.33%/yr on regulated charges against the +3.82% it asked for while requiring EUR 9,991m of regulated capex at a 7.4% allowed return below its 7.8% WACC, so consensus EPS is flat 2026-2030 and EUR 25 already discounts more than our EUR 23.55 bull case
How we value it
We value Aena S.M.E., S.A. using 10-yr FCFF DCF, 7.8% WACC, 11.5% terminal ROIC; checked on 2027E multiples. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Aena S.M.E., S.A. report
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