Is Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Nokia Oyj — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
By · report dated 2026-08-04 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Nokia's AI-driven order and revenue upgrades are not converting into profit or cash — NI growth guidance was raised from 6-8% to 12-14% while operating profit guidance stayed at €2.0-2.5B, cash conversion was cut to the low end of 55-75%, and H1'26 FCF was negative €103M — so at 23.6x FY26E comparable EPS the shares already discount the bull case; the thesis is wrong if FY26 comparable operating profit exceeds €2.5B with FCF above €1.5B and 2027 guidance implies a sustained operating margin above 13%
How we value it
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Nokia Oyj report
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